Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
